Interface Design Examples Search based on Heuristics 4 Assignment

Interface Design Examples Search based on Heuristics 4 - Assignment Example The screenshot appears when one has logged in the spacewalk web interface. Some of the highlights that may be displayed on the screen which may help user to see what is going on include; postdate systems, release of recent errata and critical monitoring status among other highlights. This screenshot help to map specimen for georeference obtained to other data base search (Shapley, Para-1). This screenshot is efficient and effective because it uses language that users can understand (Shapley, Para-1). Additionally, it helps to conduct assessment by taking into consideration all the heuristic principles (Shapley, Para-1). An example of this screenshot is the User Interface design and implementation which appears on the window XP when one presses the search button on the explorer tools bar. It allows the user to specify the kind of file he or she is searching for and in case the user makes a mistake he or she can Undo or redo. This screenshot assist data entry screenshot or consistency management screenshot which provides a list of all the elements that may be applied during the modeling process. The assisted data mechanism in this screenshot can help a person to avoid errors when making entries by enhancing consistency compliance to set standards. In this screenshot both experienced and inexperienced users are allowed to conduct frequent activities without going through unnecessary procedures. Hence, making it more flexible and efficient to use. The above screenshot help to enhance readability and inclusion of all the relevant information in the program that one is using.This screenshot may be available in microsoft spreadsheet,word and powerpoint. Therefore, based on the above interface design examples, it can be scrutinized how various screenshots for each of the ten heuristic may be used to execute various operations. Conclusively, it can be observed how screenshot are importance

Is sleep deprivation associated with poor eating habits (overnutrition Research Paper

Is sleep deprivation associated with poor eating habits (overnutrition and ultimately becoming overweight) - Research Paper Example They argue that the problem occur because of personal choices on food and physical activities. If one consumes more than what is required the excess is stored and if there is no physical activity to consume what was stored then it will remain permanently in the body (Berreby, 2014). At school, students mostly prefer fast foods that are highly rich in fat and also they lack the appliances and the ingredients they need to prepare their own foods that are more appropriate for their health. At college level, they often reduce their sport activities despite maintaining their previous eating behavior. In addition, stress imposed by the curriculum, consumption of alcohol and delayed nighttime snacking are the major contributing factors to weight gain and furthermore sleeplessness. According to many experts, sleep deprivation will result to an increase in hunger hormones and that will finally result to a feeling of fullness (Peric & Nimwegen,

The Marketing Concept Essay Example for Free

The Marketing Concept Essay The marketing concept consists of three basic elements. 1.Customer Orientation 2.Company Commitment 3.Company Goals The first concept that I will define and explain is customer orientation. Customer orientation is producing items that people want, and selling the effectively. In order to perform this task will need to base your decision-making on customers needs and wants. So, instead of trying to market what is easiest to make, you must find out much more about what the consumer is willing to buy. In other words, you must apply your creativeness more intelligently to people and their needs, rather that to products. Next is company commitment. Company commitment is when the business coordinates all of its marketing activities with each other and with all other business functions, such as accounting, production, management, and administration. This should enable the organization to improve its effectiveness in providing customer satisfaction. When a company commits itself to consumer satisfaction and uses it resources for that purpose, the third element of the marketing concept, achievement of goals, should happen. Companies continue to exist by achieving their long-term goals; not by making quick sales, offerings, or changes that do not satisfy customer needs.

Analysis of China as a Superpower

Analysis of China as a Superpower The Dragon Awakes – Will China be the next superpower? China is a sleeping dragon. When it awakes, the world will shake†. (Eccleston H, 2004, p290). Napoleon Bonaparte made this prophetic comment regarding China in 1808 and it would seem that today China has indeed awoken. (Optimize, 2004p. 1). China has had unprecedented economic growth at around 9.5% perineum, a statistic even more impressive amazing bearing in mind that only in 1978 China was poorer than Korea and Taiwan were in the 1960s. (Nye 1997-98 p. 67). China also shows signs of extending its economic reach and is expanding its ventures into developed states. Only recently the Chinese firm Nanjing bought the British ailing car firm MG rover for  £50 million. (BBC News 2006 p. 1). Also in 2005 the Chinese Lenovo Group acquired IBM’s PC business making Lenovo the third largest PC Company in the world. (Economic Times, 2005 p. 1) There is also a huge inflow of FDI (foreign direct investment) into China. China has established 22,245 new firms attracting $59.2 billion in FDI making a total of $33.4 billion in 2003. This makes China the top destination for FDI and a country that firms want to do business with. (People’s Daily, 2003). It is thought by some observers that China’s economy at its present rate could eventually overtake that of the US(United States). (Nye 1997-98 p. 67). If this is so, could China surpass the US in other areas and displace the US as the world superpower. There will be huge implication for international relations if this is to be the case. The writer’s hypothesis is that China’s rise to superpower status will mean a shift of economic, military and cultural power from the west tithe east. Drawing on the work of John Mearsheimer that states are power maximizes, China will continue to pursue power in a bid to become the most powerful state in the international system, a position currently occupied by the US. (Mearsheimer 2001 p. 21). Even those who advocate that the spread of liberalism will lessen the need for the pursuit of power have not been able to ignore this development. Fukuyama in his book â€Å"America at the Crossroads† says that social engineering like that seen in Iraq leads to unexpected consequences and undermines its own ends. Therefore actions which are put forward as promoting peace and democracy turn into something they were not intended to be, the promotion of the national interest of the US. (New York Times, 2006 p. 2). Therefore a state whose power is so big it is unchecked is unable to police itself and act benevolently in the anarchic system. Its main concern is the accumulation of power and it will not be satisfied as purported by Waltz’ defensive realist view, by only seeking to acquire as much power so as to feel secure. (Bailys Smith 2005 p. 169-170). A world dominated by China A world dominated by China may be very different than the present world that has for the last two centuries been dominated by a western power. As already mentioned China’s rise will not result in it being status quo power and therefore it will not be happy to work within system determined by western values. (Guardian 2005 p. 2). China has different values to that of the west and its rise will lead to the promotion of those values through its economic, military and institutional power. Therefore as Huntingdon notes, the new fault-lines will not be between ideologies like the two World Wars and the Cold War but between civilizations. This is due to the different views that cultures have in regard to relationships such as the citizen and the state, husband and wife, liberty and equality. (Huntingdon 1993 p.25). The west has promoted its values of liberalism as being the universal values of the world community. But due to the anarchic structure of the system these values have been used to promote its national interest. China will appeal to those states who have different view of the world that the one being put forward by the US and other western states. These states will have similar cultural values to China which stress the subordination of individual rights and elevate consensus differ from the western beliefs of liberty, equality and individualism. (Huntingdon 1993 p. 29). Indeed China is forging links with states that the US deems as rogue states such as Iran with its recent gas deal worth $100 billion. The US has imposed economic sanctions on Iran and this gas deal is a clear sign that China does not intend to work within a system determined by the US. Further, Iran is looking to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) which could act as a counterweight to US institutional power. (Asia Times 2004 p.1-2). The writer will look at China’s potential superpower status using the neo-realist theory and its conceptual and methodological framework. This will entail the use of secondary research methods by exploring the concepts of neo-realism through the scholars in this field. This theory rose to prominence during the late 1970s due to the writings of Kenneth Waltz. (Buzau in Zale ski 2002 p. 49). It rests on the earlier realist perspective of writers such as E H Carr and Hans Morgenthau, which was dominant in international relations in the post-World War II era. Realism also rose due to the inability of the liberal perspective and its principles to maintain peace in Europe. (Bur chill, 2001 p. 71). It was concerned with the causes of war and ways in which it can be prevented. (Buzau in Zale ski 2002 p. 48). EH Carr’s â€Å"The Twenty Years Crisis† was a critique of the liberal view that co-operation, under institutions such as the League of Nations, would render war obsolete. Carr’s theory was proven when World War I broke out the day after his book was published. (Bur chill 2001 p.71). Morgenthau’s work, Politics Amongst Nations (1948) sought to apply positivist methodology used in the natural sciences to international relations. Thus we can draw objective knowledge and laws from the social world in the same way that we can from the natural world. (Bur chill 2001 p. 77). He maintains that politics is governed by objective laws rooted in human nature and that human nature is reflected in the way states behave. The outcomes of the interaction of states are due to the behaviour of statesmen and thus human nature. (Bur chill 2001 p. 83). Morgenthau and Carr draw on a long philosophical heritage going back to the writings of Thucydides 460BCto 406BC and Niccole Machiavelli 1469 to 1527. The neo-realist perspective came about in response to the rise of liberal internationalism and their interdependency theory in the1970s. Neo-realism engages with this approach that deems the state tube less significant in an interdependent world due to the rise of institutions, regimes and transnational corporations. (Bailys Smith 2005 171). Realism recognised that it had to develop new tools to analyse these new developments. Thus realism reinvented itself sane-realism, acknowledging that such non-governmental actors exist, but they have to work within an anarchical international system where there is no overall authority above that of the sovereign state. This means states can never fully co-operate within these institutions due to the possibility that one state may gain more out of this co-operation. The anarchic structure of the system is where neo-realism departs from the earlier realist theory that human nature determines how states behave. Waltz’ systemic approach Waltz’ systemic approach is that it is the structure of the international system that determines the way states behave and not human nature. Despite this departure it can be said that there are core theoretical elements that underpin the earlier classical realism, modern realism of Carr and Morgenthau and Waltz’s structural realism. This is known as the realist triangle of state, survival and self-help. (Bailys Smith 2005 p. 163). The primary actor in the international system is the state. This can be traced back to Thucydides’ time when the unit of analysis waste city-state or polis. (Bailys Smith 2005 p. 163). That said, Carr and Morgenthau were less state-centric in that they did not envisage the state as the final form of political community. (Burchill2001 p. 76). The state is the only legitimate representative of the people and it uses this legitimacy to wield its authority within and outside the state. (Bailys Smith 2005 p. 163). The second core element is that of survival. The priority of the state is to ensure its own survival in the anarchic structure of the international system. This concept is present in Machiavelli’s â€Å"The Prince† which details what leaders must do to keep hold of their power. (Bailys Smith 2005 p. 174). The third concept is that of self-help that Waltz deems necessary to gain security in an anarchic structure. Hedley Bull’s â€Å"The Anarchical Society†(1977) concurs with Waltz that all states exist in an anarchical society where there is no higher authority than the sovereign state. Therefore national interest is the state’s first duty that ensures the right for citizens to feel secure within state borders. Self-help is necessary as this cannot been trusted to anyone else and this is achieved through the accumulation of power to reduce vulnerability in the anarchic system of states. The state’s first â€Å"law of motion† is to preserve the state and in order to do this it must pursue power. (Bailys Smith p. 162-3, 169). The writer has also been inspired by the academic Paul Kennedy (1989)in his book: â€Å"The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. The writer will use this thesis to assess whether China is rising at the expense of the decline of the US. According to Kennedy’s thesis the rise and fall of power is cyclical thus once a great power has arisen it must inevitably fall. A state that has achieved economic strength will protect that strength using military power but this involves great cost. Eventually the cost will be too great and the power will decline and be replaced as evidence by the decline of Britain in 1873. (Nye 1990 p. 3) The United States has undoubtedly been the great power of the 20thCentury. Will it remain so during the 21st century or will it fall and be replaced by China thus confirming Kennedy’s thesis that all great powers will eventually follow this decline thus paving the way for the next great power? There are those who believe the era of the superpower is coming to amend. Fukuyama believes that states will not need to rival each other for power. The spread of liberal democracy and its sidekick liberal economy has â€Å"triumphed† over other regimes. (Fukuyama 1992). It is further believed that open economies create interdependency and sharing of common interests. (Nye 1997-98 p. 76). Also, the state is in relative decline due to the emergence of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) such as the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and (World Bank) and also MNCs (multinational corporations. (Bailys Smith 164). Even in the US Congress the former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich does not regard China’s growth as in any way a threat whilst there are those who have views to the contrary. This highlights how the theoretical debate translates into apolitical one. There are those who view the universalism of western liberalism as unchallengeable and now the norm. This view may be borne out by the fragmentation of the Soviet Union but Matthew Rees views China’s position as similar to that of the Soviet Union in that it threatens western values of liberty and democracy. (Nye 1997-98 p.65-66) . Mearsheimer has also warned of complacency against the Chinese threat, stating of the current good relation between the two states: â€Å"this US policy (of containment) is misguided. A wealthy China would not be a status quo power, but an aggressive state, determined to achieve regional hegemony† (Mearsheimer 2001) Another writer in this field Joseph Nye refutes the claim that the state is in relative decline. His thesis is that the classic realist view of states as the most important actors cannot be disputed due merely to the rise of NGOs. This is because it underestimates the nature of the system of states that is anarchic in structure. Therefore if there is no higher authority to settle disputes the state cannot leave its survival to others. It must ensure its own survival and the only way this can be done is for the state to increase its power capabilities. (Bailys Smith 164). Thus in regard to on-state actors it is â€Å"business as usual† in that non-state actors must still work within a system of states. Thus states will still vie for power within these organisations. (Bailys Smith p. 173). This is the soft power element of the state. Definition of power â€Å"Man’s control over the minds and actions of other men†. (Morgenthau (1948) cited in Bailys Smith p. 173) Power is a highly contested concept because it is difficult to assess what elements actually constitute power. The traditional view of powers the possession of resources that include the size of population and territory, military might and economic strength. (Nye 1990 p. 26). Thus the resources of each state can be measured and compared. But measurement is not enough as evidenced during World War Two when France and Britain had more tanks that Germany but still Germany was able to outmanoeuvre the allies. Therefore when assessing power we also need to assess a state’s ability to convert its resources into such power assume states can do this more effectively than others. (Nye 1990 p.27). These avenues to power will be explored and the evidence that China has these capabilities will be extrapolated. The basis for power does not remain unchanged and must be assessed in its own context. For example the basis for power in 18th Century Europe was its population as it provided soldiers and tax resources. Today it is much more difficult to pinpoint the resources that provide the basis for power. (Nye 1990 p. 27) It is therefore not sufficient to look at the concept of power merely in terms of hard power or tangible resources. As Nye has noted in the post-cold war era there has been a shift in the balance of power in the anarchic system. The bipolar world has shifted to one that is unipolar with the US as the sole superpower. The US has exhibited all the usual traits associated with this position such as military, economic and territorial strength. But advances in technology and the emergence of NGOs and MNCs have meant a closer more interdependent world. Interdependence between states does not mean co-operation as liberals purport. It can be used to further national interest and this type of influence is the intangible soft power element of state apparatus. (Nye 1990 p.30). We can see soft power in action through the Washington consensus where the US is the leader in these institutions. We can also see soft power through the spread of the US’s liberal ideology in terms of economics and politics in what Fukuyama has called the â€Å"Triumph of Liberal Democracy†. (Fukuyama, 1992). This soft power has served to reinforce the US’s hard power resources by gaining it consent and legitimacy as the dominant power. (Nye 1990 p. 33). The universalism of American culture has also helped to further the power of the US by enabling it to establish values and beliefs that are consistent with its own society. Therefore the thesis of this dissertation is that China will be the next superpower by maximizing it’s hard power resources to secure itself in the anarchic system of states. Also, due to interdependence among states and the growth forgoes and MNCs it will seek soft power in its pursuit of power capabilities. The consequences of this systemic shift will mean the promotion of Eastern collective values over Western liberal individualistic tendencies. Part One: Hard Power Resources The Economy: If, as Kennedy suggests, China’s rise will be at the expense of the US, then at present most US concerns are directed at rapidly growing Chinese economy. There are certainly some impressive claims being made about the rise of Chinese economic power. Jeremy Warner writes that â€Å"like it or not, from China’s impact on finite world resources to climate change and the laws of supply and demand, it is transforming the way we live with a speed barely imaginable just a few years ago(The Independent January 27, 2006). Over the last 27 years, China has grown at an average rate of 9.6 present per annum, reaching a GDP of  £2.2 trillion in 2005 (The Independent January 27, 2006). In 1979, China represented 1 per cent of the world economy, with foreign trade totalling $20.6 billion. Today China accounts for 4 per cent of the world economy, with $851 billion in foreign trade, the third largest in the world (Fijian 2005, p19).There is of course still a lot of progress to be made – China’s economy for example is still only one seventh the size of that of the US(Fijian 2005, p19) but it is the rate of growth, along with plans for future expansion, the country’s high savings ratio, and plans to expand supplies of nuclear , clean coal, hydro-electric and renewable forms of energy that lead US experts to believe that one day China will challenge the US as the world’s dominant superpower. Larry Summers, former US Treasury Secretary has compared the integration of China into the w orld economy as one of the three great economic events of the last millennium – on a par with the renaissance and the industrial revolution (The Independent, July 23, 2005). The US has had similar fears about economic competition in the past. In the early 1980s it had concerns about the economic successes being enjoyed by Germany and Japan – fears that were allayed after stagnation in both countries. With China however, US fears appear to be deeper-rooted, primarily at the incredible rate of progress seen in China. Whilst the US economy may still be much larger at present, the rate of growth in China will continue to narrow the gap quickly. And of course, there is an ideological issue at the heart of the US fears about China– how is a Communist country succeeding where others have stumbled? The answer lies partly in America’s own attempts to take advantage of the economic conditions in China when Deng Xiaoping began to open up China to the rest of the world. China had historically been an insular nation, separated from the rest of the world and failing to make the most of its earlier technological advances. Deng understood that whilst China had a huge labour force, to succeed it needed to be organised, competitive in international markets and producing the type of goods that the rest of the world wanted to buy. For this to happen, China would need help from the outside world. The result has been huge foreign investments as companies from across the world have attempted to take advantage of China’s low labour costs. As Stephen King concludes, foreign investors have turned China into the world’s biggest assembly plant: â€Å"China may be a one-party state, but the authorities know all about Adam Smith and the division of labour† (The Independent, February 13, 2006). China is gradually picking off the economies of other G7 nations. Whilst its economy is still considerably smaller than Americas, by the end of 2004 it was bigger economically than France, Italy and Canada(The Independent, February 13, 2006). Germany and Japan are likely tube overtaken soon and then China will have the US firmly in its sights. It will have the opportunity to challenge US regional and global hegemony. Whilst there is an optimistic view that the economic growth in China will lead to long-term mutually beneficial cooperation with the US, more likely outcome is growing tension between the two. As China continues to grow, it will gradually begin to demand more of the world’s scarce resources – oil prices for example are already high and may be pushed higher by Chinese demand. The same will happen with other commodities with the result that China’s success increases the commodity bill for US consumers and increases global competition for raw materials. The US consumer may also put pressure on the government to curb Chinese economic expansion. With petrol being so lightly taxed in the US, motorists are affected directly by oil price rises. As The Economist reports: â€Å"they want somebody to blame and they may have heard that China is scouring the world to lock op oil supplies for its own ‘energy security’† (The Economist, September 3, 2005). Both the US and China have some common economic interests. Both benefit from free trade for example. However, with China now exporting six times as much to the US as it imports from it (The Economist, September3, 2005)., it is now China that has the most to gain, something of an irony after years of America hammering on its door to access Chinese markets. There have also been concerns in the US that China is trying to but its way into strategic assets within the US. In June 2005,CNOOC, a Chinese state controlled company attempted to buy Unocal, medium sized US oil company. Hawks within the US administration argued against allowing oil firms to fall into Chinese hands and, with public opinion in the US against the deal, it eventually fell through. The Chinese view on globalisation has been mixed. There is a view that globalisation gives a stronger reason for economic cooperation between economically strong states and certainly the acceptance of global brands into Chinese culture supports the argument that it has embraced globalisation. On the other hand, globalisation tends to reinforce US and Western interests first and foremost and the 1997-99 Asian financial crisis has convinced many within China that it could expose Chinese economic vulnerability. As Foot concludes: â€Å"with America’s advantage in technological innovation, revolution in military affairs and cultural domination, globalisation seemed to confer gains on Washington and thus further to reinforce the unipolar structure† (Foot2006 p82). Military Power To assess China’s rise to Superpower status we need to look at how it ranks in regard to military strength and capability. (Waltz 1979 p.131). The Neo-Realist view is that the nation-state is the most natural form of society and it should be defended for the national good. (Kennedy p. 90). Armies are essential for controlling land and bringing security to the nation state and which is the main objective in a world of states in a system of anarchy. (Mearsheimer p. 86). Due to competition for resources in a world of anarchy military powers a crucial instrument of the national interest. (Garnett, 1987 p.71). Thus military power is monopolised by states and used to protect states from external force. It is the capacity to kill, coerce or destroy and plays a significant part in international politics that will not be supplanted until the system of states is transformed. (Garnett 1987, p. 69-71). Those who have the most military strength are usually the most influential and the most respected in the system and certainly a proposition shared by Mao Ste-Tung’s saying that â€Å"political power grows out of the barrel of a gun†. (Garnett 1987, p.74). Recent analyses of the Chinese military threat from Washington have expressed growing concern. The 2005 Pentagon report concluded that China could threaten not just its smaller regional neighbours like Taiwan but eventually â€Å"modern militaries operating in the region.† This can be taken to include the US. (Washington Post July 23, 2005). Yee and Storey suggest that there are a number of contributing factors to the belief that China is gradually attempting to extend its influence in the region – 1)its territorial disputes with other countries in the region have intensified, 2) its rapid economic development has accelerated its military modernisation process and 3)China has elevated re-unification with Taiwan as a higher priority following the successful retrocession of Hong Kong in 1997 and Macau in1999(Yee and Storey, p4). These factors can be interpreted as evidence of strategic expansion in the region, with territorial claims on the islets in the South China Sea being seen in particular by China’s neighbours as a sign of a policy of expansion. The hard-line policy on Taiwan and the refusal to abandon the threat of military force against it is also seen as evidence of an aggressive state. As Harry Harding writes: â€Å"the rest of the world has viewed the prospect of a Greater China with both fascination and alarm. Some see it in benign terms, as a dynamic common market that provides growing opportunities for trade and investment. More frequently, however, there has been concern that the combination of economic and military resources available to China will pose a significant threat to the commercial vitality and the strategic stability of the rest of the region† (Yee and Storey p4). There is certainly evidence that China is building up its military capability to the point where it could at least challenge the US in the region. Whilst Kennedy had written in 1989 that China’s army is strong numerically but â€Å"woefully under equipped in modern instruments of war†(Kennedy 1989, p577), more recently China has bolstered its naval, submarine and cruise missile capabilities, is in the process of purchasing advanced aircraft systems and is building a nuclear missile arsenal that is capable of striking virtually all of the United States(Washington Post, July 23, 2005). Whilst much has been made of Chinese reforms since 1979 since in terms of economic growth, it is important to realise that there have been great efforts made to reorganise the military from the early 1980sonwards. Plans were put in place to reduce the People’s Liberation Army from 4.2 million to 3 million (Kennedy 1989, p579) and develop a much more professional force with a higher quality of personnel. In 2000, the total estimated strength of the Chinese military was 2.5million, of which an estimated 1.8 million are ground forces. The overall strategy for the PLA is an overall reduction and reorganisation of both equipment and personnel with a view to creating a more modern and mobile army. In terms of equipment, China falls a long way behind the US military but is looking to modernise. It has a tank inventory of around10,000,many of which are Soviet or Chinese built. Its air force possesses around 4,350 aircraft, the majority of which are combat aircraft. The government is also looking to develop a local aerospace industry that would have the capability to produce technologically advanced aircraft, whilst continuing to import aircraft from Russia. The government also has plans to buy a number of AWAC aircraft from Israel. More recently there have been statements from Chinese military strategists that indicate that China is gearing up to use its military hard power resources. Taiwan will be the most likely arena for the flexing of Chinese military power. General Wen Zinger , political commissar of the Academy of Military Science has stated that the Taiwan problem â€Å"is of far reaching significance to breaking international forces blockade against China’s rise†¦ to rise suddenly, China must pass through oceans and go out of the oceans in its future development(Washington Post July 23, 2005). For proponents of the Chinese threat, such statements support the realist view that China is seeking to increase then demonstrate its power in the international arena. Just as Morgenthau argues that the pursuit of power in world politics is both natural and justified, surrealists will argue that China will become unsatisfied with the existing global power structure and adopt a policy of imperial expansionism aimed at attaining both regional and global hegemony (Yeaned Storey 2002, p7). Whilst China also has the option of economic and cultural means to accomplish its strategic objectives, military force remains the most traditional form of imperialism, and the most likely course for China to take once its economy is fully developed. Joseph Nye observes that the ‘rise’ of China is actually a misnomer and that a more accurate term would be the re-emergence of China. Certainly, China has long been a major power in East Asia, and technologically and economically it was the world’s leader (though without global reach) from 500 to 1500, before being overtaken by Europe and America. Indeed, China’s re-emergence would equate with Kennedy’s argument that power across the globe is cyclical. China already has some issues with the US and the other great powers over foreign policies. As a member of the UN Security Council it has traditionally opposed the views of Western states on the international arena and is continuing to do so in spite of its closer economic ties with the West. Whilst China may accept that at the present time it must operate in a US-dominated unipolar world, it believes that its future should at least lie in a multipolar world encompassing the US, China, Europe, Russia and Japan (Foot, 2006, p81). Certainly during the 1990sthere was Chinese unease at the continued American dominance in global affairs with issues such as further NATO expansion eastward, the renegotiation of terms of the US-Japan alliance, US defence missile systems and intervention in Kosovo being of particular concern. China’s population can be both a hard power resource and a burden. Its current population of 1.3 billion is expected to continue to rise until2030 when it will peak at 1.5 billion before going into decline. Population of such a size is of course a huge resource in terms of manpower, yet a huge burden on the domestic economy and from a domestic security point of view and massive number of people over which to maintain effective control. Western states continue to lobby the Chinese government for greater democratisation, yet the fear of anarchy from a more liberalised system would appear to be keeping the leadership committed to an authoritarian regime. From a realist perspective, it is the combination of economic and military power of China that will ultimately lead to conflict with thus. The build-up of such hard resources will be seen as a threat by thus regardless of any ‘good neighbour’ policies that Chinese diplomats may point to. Realists within the US policy making sphere will argue that China is merely biding its time until its economy is strong enough to provide a basis for future hegemony. Thucydides argument that the belief in the inevitability of conflict can be the cause of war is appropriate here – if both sides believe they will eventually end up in conflict, the military build-up will continue, economic cooperation will fade away, and conflict will become unavoidable. China will eventually have to seek further power in order. Certainly, as the Chinese economy continues to grow, it is likely that its military power will increase. For example, early in 2005, it announced a 12.6 per cent increase in defence spending (Nye, Daily Times March 27, 2005), something that makes it appear more dangerous touts neighbours and further complicating US military commitments in Asia. A RAND study has projected that China’s military expenditure will be more than six times higher than Japans by 2015 and accumulated military capital stock at around five times higher (Daily Times, March27, 2005), again something that suggests it is looking to achieve regional hegemony before aiming its sights higher and looking for global hegemony. Whilst a global military challenge to the US in the short term is unlikely, there is certainly a possibility that China could challenge the US in East Asia, or even more probably over Taiwan. China would almost certainly intervene militarily if Taiwan were ever to declare independence, irrespective of the military or economic cost. No Chinese leader can afford to be seen as the one that lost Taiwan permanently and at present, the West’s main concern about the Chinese military rests ar Analysis of China as a Superpower Analysis of China as a Superpower The Dragon Awakes – Will China be the next superpower? China is a sleeping dragon. When it awakes, the world will shake†. (Eccleston H, 2004, p290). Napoleon Bonaparte made this prophetic comment regarding China in 1808 and it would seem that today China has indeed awoken. (Optimize, 2004p. 1). China has had unprecedented economic growth at around 9.5% perineum, a statistic even more impressive amazing bearing in mind that only in 1978 China was poorer than Korea and Taiwan were in the 1960s. (Nye 1997-98 p. 67). China also shows signs of extending its economic reach and is expanding its ventures into developed states. Only recently the Chinese firm Nanjing bought the British ailing car firm MG rover for  £50 million. (BBC News 2006 p. 1). Also in 2005 the Chinese Lenovo Group acquired IBM’s PC business making Lenovo the third largest PC Company in the world. (Economic Times, 2005 p. 1) There is also a huge inflow of FDI (foreign direct investment) into China. China has established 22,245 new firms attracting $59.2 billion in FDI making a total of $33.4 billion in 2003. This makes China the top destination for FDI and a country that firms want to do business with. (People’s Daily, 2003). It is thought by some observers that China’s economy at its present rate could eventually overtake that of the US(United States). (Nye 1997-98 p. 67). If this is so, could China surpass the US in other areas and displace the US as the world superpower. There will be huge implication for international relations if this is to be the case. The writer’s hypothesis is that China’s rise to superpower status will mean a shift of economic, military and cultural power from the west tithe east. Drawing on the work of John Mearsheimer that states are power maximizes, China will continue to pursue power in a bid to become the most powerful state in the international system, a position currently occupied by the US. (Mearsheimer 2001 p. 21). Even those who advocate that the spread of liberalism will lessen the need for the pursuit of power have not been able to ignore this development. Fukuyama in his book â€Å"America at the Crossroads† says that social engineering like that seen in Iraq leads to unexpected consequences and undermines its own ends. Therefore actions which are put forward as promoting peace and democracy turn into something they were not intended to be, the promotion of the national interest of the US. (New York Times, 2006 p. 2). Therefore a state whose power is so big it is unchecked is unable to police itself and act benevolently in the anarchic system. Its main concern is the accumulation of power and it will not be satisfied as purported by Waltz’ defensive realist view, by only seeking to acquire as much power so as to feel secure. (Bailys Smith 2005 p. 169-170). A world dominated by China A world dominated by China may be very different than the present world that has for the last two centuries been dominated by a western power. As already mentioned China’s rise will not result in it being status quo power and therefore it will not be happy to work within system determined by western values. (Guardian 2005 p. 2). China has different values to that of the west and its rise will lead to the promotion of those values through its economic, military and institutional power. Therefore as Huntingdon notes, the new fault-lines will not be between ideologies like the two World Wars and the Cold War but between civilizations. This is due to the different views that cultures have in regard to relationships such as the citizen and the state, husband and wife, liberty and equality. (Huntingdon 1993 p.25). The west has promoted its values of liberalism as being the universal values of the world community. But due to the anarchic structure of the system these values have been used to promote its national interest. China will appeal to those states who have different view of the world that the one being put forward by the US and other western states. These states will have similar cultural values to China which stress the subordination of individual rights and elevate consensus differ from the western beliefs of liberty, equality and individualism. (Huntingdon 1993 p. 29). Indeed China is forging links with states that the US deems as rogue states such as Iran with its recent gas deal worth $100 billion. The US has imposed economic sanctions on Iran and this gas deal is a clear sign that China does not intend to work within a system determined by the US. Further, Iran is looking to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) which could act as a counterweight to US institutional power. (Asia Times 2004 p.1-2). The writer will look at China’s potential superpower status using the neo-realist theory and its conceptual and methodological framework. This will entail the use of secondary research methods by exploring the concepts of neo-realism through the scholars in this field. This theory rose to prominence during the late 1970s due to the writings of Kenneth Waltz. (Buzau in Zale ski 2002 p. 49). It rests on the earlier realist perspective of writers such as E H Carr and Hans Morgenthau, which was dominant in international relations in the post-World War II era. Realism also rose due to the inability of the liberal perspective and its principles to maintain peace in Europe. (Bur chill, 2001 p. 71). It was concerned with the causes of war and ways in which it can be prevented. (Buzau in Zale ski 2002 p. 48). EH Carr’s â€Å"The Twenty Years Crisis† was a critique of the liberal view that co-operation, under institutions such as the League of Nations, would render war obsolete. Carr’s theory was proven when World War I broke out the day after his book was published. (Bur chill 2001 p.71). Morgenthau’s work, Politics Amongst Nations (1948) sought to apply positivist methodology used in the natural sciences to international relations. Thus we can draw objective knowledge and laws from the social world in the same way that we can from the natural world. (Bur chill 2001 p. 77). He maintains that politics is governed by objective laws rooted in human nature and that human nature is reflected in the way states behave. The outcomes of the interaction of states are due to the behaviour of statesmen and thus human nature. (Bur chill 2001 p. 83). Morgenthau and Carr draw on a long philosophical heritage going back to the writings of Thucydides 460BCto 406BC and Niccole Machiavelli 1469 to 1527. The neo-realist perspective came about in response to the rise of liberal internationalism and their interdependency theory in the1970s. Neo-realism engages with this approach that deems the state tube less significant in an interdependent world due to the rise of institutions, regimes and transnational corporations. (Bailys Smith 2005 171). Realism recognised that it had to develop new tools to analyse these new developments. Thus realism reinvented itself sane-realism, acknowledging that such non-governmental actors exist, but they have to work within an anarchical international system where there is no overall authority above that of the sovereign state. This means states can never fully co-operate within these institutions due to the possibility that one state may gain more out of this co-operation. The anarchic structure of the system is where neo-realism departs from the earlier realist theory that human nature determines how states behave. Waltz’ systemic approach Waltz’ systemic approach is that it is the structure of the international system that determines the way states behave and not human nature. Despite this departure it can be said that there are core theoretical elements that underpin the earlier classical realism, modern realism of Carr and Morgenthau and Waltz’s structural realism. This is known as the realist triangle of state, survival and self-help. (Bailys Smith 2005 p. 163). The primary actor in the international system is the state. This can be traced back to Thucydides’ time when the unit of analysis waste city-state or polis. (Bailys Smith 2005 p. 163). That said, Carr and Morgenthau were less state-centric in that they did not envisage the state as the final form of political community. (Burchill2001 p. 76). The state is the only legitimate representative of the people and it uses this legitimacy to wield its authority within and outside the state. (Bailys Smith 2005 p. 163). The second core element is that of survival. The priority of the state is to ensure its own survival in the anarchic structure of the international system. This concept is present in Machiavelli’s â€Å"The Prince† which details what leaders must do to keep hold of their power. (Bailys Smith 2005 p. 174). The third concept is that of self-help that Waltz deems necessary to gain security in an anarchic structure. Hedley Bull’s â€Å"The Anarchical Society†(1977) concurs with Waltz that all states exist in an anarchical society where there is no higher authority than the sovereign state. Therefore national interest is the state’s first duty that ensures the right for citizens to feel secure within state borders. Self-help is necessary as this cannot been trusted to anyone else and this is achieved through the accumulation of power to reduce vulnerability in the anarchic system of states. The state’s first â€Å"law of motion† is to preserve the state and in order to do this it must pursue power. (Bailys Smith p. 162-3, 169). The writer has also been inspired by the academic Paul Kennedy (1989)in his book: â€Å"The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. The writer will use this thesis to assess whether China is rising at the expense of the decline of the US. According to Kennedy’s thesis the rise and fall of power is cyclical thus once a great power has arisen it must inevitably fall. A state that has achieved economic strength will protect that strength using military power but this involves great cost. Eventually the cost will be too great and the power will decline and be replaced as evidence by the decline of Britain in 1873. (Nye 1990 p. 3) The United States has undoubtedly been the great power of the 20thCentury. Will it remain so during the 21st century or will it fall and be replaced by China thus confirming Kennedy’s thesis that all great powers will eventually follow this decline thus paving the way for the next great power? There are those who believe the era of the superpower is coming to amend. Fukuyama believes that states will not need to rival each other for power. The spread of liberal democracy and its sidekick liberal economy has â€Å"triumphed† over other regimes. (Fukuyama 1992). It is further believed that open economies create interdependency and sharing of common interests. (Nye 1997-98 p. 76). Also, the state is in relative decline due to the emergence of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) such as the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and (World Bank) and also MNCs (multinational corporations. (Bailys Smith 164). Even in the US Congress the former House of Representatives speaker Newt Gingrich does not regard China’s growth as in any way a threat whilst there are those who have views to the contrary. This highlights how the theoretical debate translates into apolitical one. There are those who view the universalism of western liberalism as unchallengeable and now the norm. This view may be borne out by the fragmentation of the Soviet Union but Matthew Rees views China’s position as similar to that of the Soviet Union in that it threatens western values of liberty and democracy. (Nye 1997-98 p.65-66) . Mearsheimer has also warned of complacency against the Chinese threat, stating of the current good relation between the two states: â€Å"this US policy (of containment) is misguided. A wealthy China would not be a status quo power, but an aggressive state, determined to achieve regional hegemony† (Mearsheimer 2001) Another writer in this field Joseph Nye refutes the claim that the state is in relative decline. His thesis is that the classic realist view of states as the most important actors cannot be disputed due merely to the rise of NGOs. This is because it underestimates the nature of the system of states that is anarchic in structure. Therefore if there is no higher authority to settle disputes the state cannot leave its survival to others. It must ensure its own survival and the only way this can be done is for the state to increase its power capabilities. (Bailys Smith 164). Thus in regard to on-state actors it is â€Å"business as usual† in that non-state actors must still work within a system of states. Thus states will still vie for power within these organisations. (Bailys Smith p. 173). This is the soft power element of the state. Definition of power â€Å"Man’s control over the minds and actions of other men†. (Morgenthau (1948) cited in Bailys Smith p. 173) Power is a highly contested concept because it is difficult to assess what elements actually constitute power. The traditional view of powers the possession of resources that include the size of population and territory, military might and economic strength. (Nye 1990 p. 26). Thus the resources of each state can be measured and compared. But measurement is not enough as evidenced during World War Two when France and Britain had more tanks that Germany but still Germany was able to outmanoeuvre the allies. Therefore when assessing power we also need to assess a state’s ability to convert its resources into such power assume states can do this more effectively than others. (Nye 1990 p.27). These avenues to power will be explored and the evidence that China has these capabilities will be extrapolated. The basis for power does not remain unchanged and must be assessed in its own context. For example the basis for power in 18th Century Europe was its population as it provided soldiers and tax resources. Today it is much more difficult to pinpoint the resources that provide the basis for power. (Nye 1990 p. 27) It is therefore not sufficient to look at the concept of power merely in terms of hard power or tangible resources. As Nye has noted in the post-cold war era there has been a shift in the balance of power in the anarchic system. The bipolar world has shifted to one that is unipolar with the US as the sole superpower. The US has exhibited all the usual traits associated with this position such as military, economic and territorial strength. But advances in technology and the emergence of NGOs and MNCs have meant a closer more interdependent world. Interdependence between states does not mean co-operation as liberals purport. It can be used to further national interest and this type of influence is the intangible soft power element of state apparatus. (Nye 1990 p.30). We can see soft power in action through the Washington consensus where the US is the leader in these institutions. We can also see soft power through the spread of the US’s liberal ideology in terms of economics and politics in what Fukuyama has called the â€Å"Triumph of Liberal Democracy†. (Fukuyama, 1992). This soft power has served to reinforce the US’s hard power resources by gaining it consent and legitimacy as the dominant power. (Nye 1990 p. 33). The universalism of American culture has also helped to further the power of the US by enabling it to establish values and beliefs that are consistent with its own society. Therefore the thesis of this dissertation is that China will be the next superpower by maximizing it’s hard power resources to secure itself in the anarchic system of states. Also, due to interdependence among states and the growth forgoes and MNCs it will seek soft power in its pursuit of power capabilities. The consequences of this systemic shift will mean the promotion of Eastern collective values over Western liberal individualistic tendencies. Part One: Hard Power Resources The Economy: If, as Kennedy suggests, China’s rise will be at the expense of the US, then at present most US concerns are directed at rapidly growing Chinese economy. There are certainly some impressive claims being made about the rise of Chinese economic power. Jeremy Warner writes that â€Å"like it or not, from China’s impact on finite world resources to climate change and the laws of supply and demand, it is transforming the way we live with a speed barely imaginable just a few years ago(The Independent January 27, 2006). Over the last 27 years, China has grown at an average rate of 9.6 present per annum, reaching a GDP of  £2.2 trillion in 2005 (The Independent January 27, 2006). In 1979, China represented 1 per cent of the world economy, with foreign trade totalling $20.6 billion. Today China accounts for 4 per cent of the world economy, with $851 billion in foreign trade, the third largest in the world (Fijian 2005, p19).There is of course still a lot of progress to be made – China’s economy for example is still only one seventh the size of that of the US(Fijian 2005, p19) but it is the rate of growth, along with plans for future expansion, the country’s high savings ratio, and plans to expand supplies of nuclear , clean coal, hydro-electric and renewable forms of energy that lead US experts to believe that one day China will challenge the US as the world’s dominant superpower. Larry Summers, former US Treasury Secretary has compared the integration of China into the w orld economy as one of the three great economic events of the last millennium – on a par with the renaissance and the industrial revolution (The Independent, July 23, 2005). The US has had similar fears about economic competition in the past. In the early 1980s it had concerns about the economic successes being enjoyed by Germany and Japan – fears that were allayed after stagnation in both countries. With China however, US fears appear to be deeper-rooted, primarily at the incredible rate of progress seen in China. Whilst the US economy may still be much larger at present, the rate of growth in China will continue to narrow the gap quickly. And of course, there is an ideological issue at the heart of the US fears about China– how is a Communist country succeeding where others have stumbled? The answer lies partly in America’s own attempts to take advantage of the economic conditions in China when Deng Xiaoping began to open up China to the rest of the world. China had historically been an insular nation, separated from the rest of the world and failing to make the most of its earlier technological advances. Deng understood that whilst China had a huge labour force, to succeed it needed to be organised, competitive in international markets and producing the type of goods that the rest of the world wanted to buy. For this to happen, China would need help from the outside world. The result has been huge foreign investments as companies from across the world have attempted to take advantage of China’s low labour costs. As Stephen King concludes, foreign investors have turned China into the world’s biggest assembly plant: â€Å"China may be a one-party state, but the authorities know all about Adam Smith and the division of labour† (The Independent, February 13, 2006). China is gradually picking off the economies of other G7 nations. Whilst its economy is still considerably smaller than Americas, by the end of 2004 it was bigger economically than France, Italy and Canada(The Independent, February 13, 2006). Germany and Japan are likely tube overtaken soon and then China will have the US firmly in its sights. It will have the opportunity to challenge US regional and global hegemony. Whilst there is an optimistic view that the economic growth in China will lead to long-term mutually beneficial cooperation with the US, more likely outcome is growing tension between the two. As China continues to grow, it will gradually begin to demand more of the world’s scarce resources – oil prices for example are already high and may be pushed higher by Chinese demand. The same will happen with other commodities with the result that China’s success increases the commodity bill for US consumers and increases global competition for raw materials. The US consumer may also put pressure on the government to curb Chinese economic expansion. With petrol being so lightly taxed in the US, motorists are affected directly by oil price rises. As The Economist reports: â€Å"they want somebody to blame and they may have heard that China is scouring the world to lock op oil supplies for its own ‘energy security’† (The Economist, September 3, 2005). Both the US and China have some common economic interests. Both benefit from free trade for example. However, with China now exporting six times as much to the US as it imports from it (The Economist, September3, 2005)., it is now China that has the most to gain, something of an irony after years of America hammering on its door to access Chinese markets. There have also been concerns in the US that China is trying to but its way into strategic assets within the US. In June 2005,CNOOC, a Chinese state controlled company attempted to buy Unocal, medium sized US oil company. Hawks within the US administration argued against allowing oil firms to fall into Chinese hands and, with public opinion in the US against the deal, it eventually fell through. The Chinese view on globalisation has been mixed. There is a view that globalisation gives a stronger reason for economic cooperation between economically strong states and certainly the acceptance of global brands into Chinese culture supports the argument that it has embraced globalisation. On the other hand, globalisation tends to reinforce US and Western interests first and foremost and the 1997-99 Asian financial crisis has convinced many within China that it could expose Chinese economic vulnerability. As Foot concludes: â€Å"with America’s advantage in technological innovation, revolution in military affairs and cultural domination, globalisation seemed to confer gains on Washington and thus further to reinforce the unipolar structure† (Foot2006 p82). Military Power To assess China’s rise to Superpower status we need to look at how it ranks in regard to military strength and capability. (Waltz 1979 p.131). The Neo-Realist view is that the nation-state is the most natural form of society and it should be defended for the national good. (Kennedy p. 90). Armies are essential for controlling land and bringing security to the nation state and which is the main objective in a world of states in a system of anarchy. (Mearsheimer p. 86). Due to competition for resources in a world of anarchy military powers a crucial instrument of the national interest. (Garnett, 1987 p.71). Thus military power is monopolised by states and used to protect states from external force. It is the capacity to kill, coerce or destroy and plays a significant part in international politics that will not be supplanted until the system of states is transformed. (Garnett 1987, p. 69-71). Those who have the most military strength are usually the most influential and the most respected in the system and certainly a proposition shared by Mao Ste-Tung’s saying that â€Å"political power grows out of the barrel of a gun†. (Garnett 1987, p.74). Recent analyses of the Chinese military threat from Washington have expressed growing concern. The 2005 Pentagon report concluded that China could threaten not just its smaller regional neighbours like Taiwan but eventually â€Å"modern militaries operating in the region.† This can be taken to include the US. (Washington Post July 23, 2005). Yee and Storey suggest that there are a number of contributing factors to the belief that China is gradually attempting to extend its influence in the region – 1)its territorial disputes with other countries in the region have intensified, 2) its rapid economic development has accelerated its military modernisation process and 3)China has elevated re-unification with Taiwan as a higher priority following the successful retrocession of Hong Kong in 1997 and Macau in1999(Yee and Storey, p4). These factors can be interpreted as evidence of strategic expansion in the region, with territorial claims on the islets in the South China Sea being seen in particular by China’s neighbours as a sign of a policy of expansion. The hard-line policy on Taiwan and the refusal to abandon the threat of military force against it is also seen as evidence of an aggressive state. As Harry Harding writes: â€Å"the rest of the world has viewed the prospect of a Greater China with both fascination and alarm. Some see it in benign terms, as a dynamic common market that provides growing opportunities for trade and investment. More frequently, however, there has been concern that the combination of economic and military resources available to China will pose a significant threat to the commercial vitality and the strategic stability of the rest of the region† (Yee and Storey p4). There is certainly evidence that China is building up its military capability to the point where it could at least challenge the US in the region. Whilst Kennedy had written in 1989 that China’s army is strong numerically but â€Å"woefully under equipped in modern instruments of war†(Kennedy 1989, p577), more recently China has bolstered its naval, submarine and cruise missile capabilities, is in the process of purchasing advanced aircraft systems and is building a nuclear missile arsenal that is capable of striking virtually all of the United States(Washington Post, July 23, 2005). Whilst much has been made of Chinese reforms since 1979 since in terms of economic growth, it is important to realise that there have been great efforts made to reorganise the military from the early 1980sonwards. Plans were put in place to reduce the People’s Liberation Army from 4.2 million to 3 million (Kennedy 1989, p579) and develop a much more professional force with a higher quality of personnel. In 2000, the total estimated strength of the Chinese military was 2.5million, of which an estimated 1.8 million are ground forces. The overall strategy for the PLA is an overall reduction and reorganisation of both equipment and personnel with a view to creating a more modern and mobile army. In terms of equipment, China falls a long way behind the US military but is looking to modernise. It has a tank inventory of around10,000,many of which are Soviet or Chinese built. Its air force possesses around 4,350 aircraft, the majority of which are combat aircraft. The government is also looking to develop a local aerospace industry that would have the capability to produce technologically advanced aircraft, whilst continuing to import aircraft from Russia. The government also has plans to buy a number of AWAC aircraft from Israel. More recently there have been statements from Chinese military strategists that indicate that China is gearing up to use its military hard power resources. Taiwan will be the most likely arena for the flexing of Chinese military power. General Wen Zinger , political commissar of the Academy of Military Science has stated that the Taiwan problem â€Å"is of far reaching significance to breaking international forces blockade against China’s rise†¦ to rise suddenly, China must pass through oceans and go out of the oceans in its future development(Washington Post July 23, 2005). For proponents of the Chinese threat, such statements support the realist view that China is seeking to increase then demonstrate its power in the international arena. Just as Morgenthau argues that the pursuit of power in world politics is both natural and justified, surrealists will argue that China will become unsatisfied with the existing global power structure and adopt a policy of imperial expansionism aimed at attaining both regional and global hegemony (Yeaned Storey 2002, p7). Whilst China also has the option of economic and cultural means to accomplish its strategic objectives, military force remains the most traditional form of imperialism, and the most likely course for China to take once its economy is fully developed. Joseph Nye observes that the ‘rise’ of China is actually a misnomer and that a more accurate term would be the re-emergence of China. Certainly, China has long been a major power in East Asia, and technologically and economically it was the world’s leader (though without global reach) from 500 to 1500, before being overtaken by Europe and America. Indeed, China’s re-emergence would equate with Kennedy’s argument that power across the globe is cyclical. China already has some issues with the US and the other great powers over foreign policies. As a member of the UN Security Council it has traditionally opposed the views of Western states on the international arena and is continuing to do so in spite of its closer economic ties with the West. Whilst China may accept that at the present time it must operate in a US-dominated unipolar world, it believes that its future should at least lie in a multipolar world encompassing the US, China, Europe, Russia and Japan (Foot, 2006, p81). Certainly during the 1990sthere was Chinese unease at the continued American dominance in global affairs with issues such as further NATO expansion eastward, the renegotiation of terms of the US-Japan alliance, US defence missile systems and intervention in Kosovo being of particular concern. China’s population can be both a hard power resource and a burden. Its current population of 1.3 billion is expected to continue to rise until2030 when it will peak at 1.5 billion before going into decline. Population of such a size is of course a huge resource in terms of manpower, yet a huge burden on the domestic economy and from a domestic security point of view and massive number of people over which to maintain effective control. Western states continue to lobby the Chinese government for greater democratisation, yet the fear of anarchy from a more liberalised system would appear to be keeping the leadership committed to an authoritarian regime. From a realist perspective, it is the combination of economic and military power of China that will ultimately lead to conflict with thus. The build-up of such hard resources will be seen as a threat by thus regardless of any ‘good neighbour’ policies that Chinese diplomats may point to. Realists within the US policy making sphere will argue that China is merely biding its time until its economy is strong enough to provide a basis for future hegemony. Thucydides argument that the belief in the inevitability of conflict can be the cause of war is appropriate here – if both sides believe they will eventually end up in conflict, the military build-up will continue, economic cooperation will fade away, and conflict will become unavoidable. China will eventually have to seek further power in order. Certainly, as the Chinese economy continues to grow, it is likely that its military power will increase. For example, early in 2005, it announced a 12.6 per cent increase in defence spending (Nye, Daily Times March 27, 2005), something that makes it appear more dangerous touts neighbours and further complicating US military commitments in Asia. A RAND study has projected that China’s military expenditure will be more than six times higher than Japans by 2015 and accumulated military capital stock at around five times higher (Daily Times, March27, 2005), again something that suggests it is looking to achieve regional hegemony before aiming its sights higher and looking for global hegemony. Whilst a global military challenge to the US in the short term is unlikely, there is certainly a possibility that China could challenge the US in East Asia, or even more probably over Taiwan. China would almost certainly intervene militarily if Taiwan were ever to declare independence, irrespective of the military or economic cost. No Chinese leader can afford to be seen as the one that lost Taiwan permanently and at present, the West’s main concern about the Chinese military rests ar

Capital Punishment Essay: Hypocrisy of the Death Penalty

The Hypocrisy of the Death Penalty If there is a desire by the American people to maintain the death penalty, let us at least be spared the hypocrisy of a justification by example.   The death penalty is a penalty, to be sure, a frightful torture, both physical and moral, but it provides no sure example except a demoralizing one. It punishes, but it forestalls nothing; indeed, it may even arouse the impulse to murder. It hardly seems to exist, except for the man who suffers it-- in his soul for months and years, in his body during the desperate and violent hour when he is cut in two without suppressing his life. Let us call it by the name which, for lack of any other nobility, will at least give the nobility of truth, and let us recognize it for what it is essentially: a revenge. A punishment that penalizes without forestalling is indeed called revenge. It is a quasi-arithmetical reply made by society to whoever breaks its primordial law. That reply is as old as man; it is called the law of retaliation. Whoever has done me harm must suffer harm; whoever has put out my eye m...

Free College Essays - The Hidden Meaning of Gullivers Travels :: Gullivers Travels Essays

The Hidden Meaning of Gulliver's Travels  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Gulliver's Travels is one of the most beloved satires of all time (Forster 11). Yet, careful analysis shows it to be very complex with not one definite interpretation. A very surface reading may leave one feeling that the point of the book is "don't be Yahoo." This is the message that David Ward feels Gulliver the character is giving and says that it is no more complex than Orwell's, "four legs good, two legs bad." But this grows out of the fact of Gulliver's nature. A synthesis of the opinions of the writers I read paints Gulliver as an average man of average courage, honesty, compassion, and intellect, a typical Englishman. But there is nothing typical about Gulliver's Travels. What Swift has accomplished by making Gulliver the embodiment of common English values and beliefs and then having him visit far away lands that are really the mirrors of English society is an interesting satirical device. He forces the English reader to unknowingly judge English society, not according to some higher law or pristine observer, but through the lens of their own cherished values. This effectively turns English beliefs and values in on themselves as a test of their merit. Swift echoes this structure by first having Gulliver visit a land of little people, which causes one to observe them with scrutiny. Then Gulliver immediately travels to a land of giants which causes scrutiny of Gulliver, who is now the little one. After a series of different looks at society through the first three voyages, Gulliver travels to Houyhnhnmland where the nature of people themselves are given the strongest censure, by being directly paralleled with the loathsome Yahoos. Here Swift bluntly attacks almost every aspect of society, which is then compared to the Yahoos point by point by the Grey Mare. Gulliver and the reader finally identify themselves completely with the Yahoos (see close commentary), and Gulliver decides to abandon Yahooism forever. But, he is then immediately banished from the island by the Houyhnhnm assembly. This poses an interesting question (see close commentary). What is Swift's final message then about man or his future? The fact that Gulliver is unable to stay with the Houyhnhnms or adhere to their principles after leaving the island, does not mean to me that man is doomed. I think Swift is saying that man will always be Yahoo, but at the same time I think he is advocating an awareness of our Yahoo nature.

Environmental Analysis of Barclays Bank Essay

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Banks are central to every society; they provide the funding that facilitates business and entrepreneurship, support a sound financial system, and help to create jobs and wealth. Banks in the UK operate in a highly competitive, globalised but lightly-regulated environment. They face increasingly well-informed and ‘energetic’ customers, determined legislators, and electorates who are becoming environmentally aware. They have to adapt to changing economic and market conditions, fast changing consumer needs and expectations. Their business is influenced by global economic, political, regulatory, technological and other unpredictable factors. Consequently, they have to device their strategies, policies and operations to adapt to these changes in order to meet stakeholder expectations and satisfy consumer needs. In this assignment, I try to describe and evaluate changing business environment of Barclays Bank Plc over the last five years. INTRODUCTION About Barclays Bank Plc Barclays is a major global financial services provider engaged in retail banking, credit cards, corporate banking, investment banking, wealth management and investment management services with an extensive international presence in Europe, the Americas, Africa and Asia. Barclays  Group headquarters is at 1 Churchill Place in London, UK, but it has operations all over the world, with products and services to meet the needs of customers and clients in local markets. With over 300 years of history and expertise in banking, Barclays operates in over 50 countries and employs more than 144,000 people. Barclays moves, lends, invests and protects money for more than 48 million customers and clients worldwide. Organizational structure Barclays is made up of two ‘Clusters’: Global Retail Banking, and Corporate and Investment Banking and Wealth Management, each of which has a number of Business Units. The third major area of the business is Group Centre, which comprises all our essential support functions. UK Banking Industry UK’s banking sector, following the US and Japan, is the world’s third largest and considered foremost in terms of: efficiency, dynamism and return on capital. In addition to having one of the largest commercial banking industries, the UK is also a major international centre for investment and private banking. The UK banking sector’s strong international orientation is reflected in the substantial foreign presence and sizeable assets of foreign banks in London. It services 95% of the population with about 3.5% of UK’s workforce – over a million workers. Banks and financial services contribute  £70bn to the UK’s national output (6.8% of GDP) and provide 25% of total corporation tax ( £8bn) to the UK Government. The main retail banks provide over 125m accounts, clear 7bn transactions a year and facilitate 2.3bn cash withdrawals per year from its network of over 30,000 free ATMs. Banks in the UK contribute well over  £100m per year to charities and local community initiatives. UK banks are authorised and regulated by Financial Services Authority under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA). Financial Services Authority is an independent non-governmental body which exercises statutory powers under the FSMA. The FSMA requires the FSA to pursue four objectives: to maintain confidence in the UK financial system; to promote public understanding of the financial system; to secure an appropriate degree of  protection for consumers whilst recognizing their own responsibilities; and to reduce the scope for financial crime. Banks of England is responsible for maintaining overall stability of the financial system a whole. The Bank sets interest rates of UK and is also responsible for identifying and limiting systemic financial risk. ANALYSIS Barclays bank operates almost all over the world and hence its actions are influenced by the global economic conditions. I have used PESTEL framework to describe and evaluate business environment of Barclays Bank plc. It categorises environmental factors into six main types: political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal. Political * Government stability * Taxation policy * Foreign trade regulations * Social welfare policies Economic factors * Business cycles * GNP trends * Interest rates * Money supply * Income distribution * Social mobility * Lifestyle changes * Attitudes to work and leisure * Consumerism * Levels of education Technological * Government spending on research * Government and industry focus on technological effort * New discoveries/development * Speed of technology transfer * Rates of obsolescence Environmental * Environmental protection laws * Waste disposal * Energy consumption Legal * Monopolies legislation * Employment law * Health and safety * Product safety The change in the business environment of Barclays bank Economic factors The collapse of a global housing bubble, which peaked in the U.S. in 2006, caused the values of securities tied to real estate pricing to plummet thereafter, damaging financial institutions globally. Questions regarding bank solvency, declines in credit availability, and damaged investor confidence had an impact on global stock markets, where securities suffered large losses during late 2008 and early 2009. Economies worldwide slowed during this period as credit tightened and international trade declined. Governments and central banks responded with unprecedented fiscal stimulus, monetary policy expansion, and institutional bailouts. The subsequent emergence of a wider set of credit problems – in mortgages and in corporate lending, and in particular in commercial real estate – generated credit capacity constraints and economic slowdown. An initial focus on funding problems, with the failure of Northern Rock caused not by immediately evident solvency/credit quality problems, but by the drying up of the market for both securitised credit assets and wholesale funding availability. Such funding issues were also critical to the problems of Bradford & Bingley and HBOS in September/October 2008. The UK economy was officially declared to be in recession on 6th May 2009. The Office of National Statistics said that Gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 1.5% in the last three months of 2008, after a 0.6% contraction in  the previous quarter. Recession is generally defined as two quarters of successive contractions in GDP, which means the UK had been in recession since July 2008. Industrial production fell by a massive 3.9 per cent over the quarter, while the dominant services sector fell by one per cent. Unemployment had also risen to 2.47 million in the three months to July 2009. It was at its highest level in 14 years since May 1995. The UK economy came out of recession in 2010, after figures showed it had grown by 0.1% in the last three months of 2009. In the second week of January 2010, UK unemployment fell for the first time in 18 month. The UK’s production and service sectors each grew by 0.1% during the quarter. The UK recession began in the April-to-June quarter of 2008, and was the longest UK recession on record. During 18 months of recession, public borrowing increased to an estimated  £178bn, while output slumped by 6%. Impact on Barclays Bank’s performance Barclays announced record profits of more than  £11 billion for 2009 – a 92% rise on the previous year. Its performance driven largely by a strong revival in its investment banking arm Barclays Capital. Profits were also boosted by sale of fund management business Barclays Global Investors, and the addition of the New York operations of failed investment bank Lehman Brothers at the end of 2008. The BGI sale added  £6.3 billion to pre-tax profits. Barclays Capital contributed  £2.5 billion of the bank’s underlying profit of  £5.3 billion which was 13% down on 2008’s  £6 billion. However, the bank’s profit was highly affected by the global economic slowdown and deteriorating economic conditions in the UK. Its UK Retail Banking profit before tax in 2009 decreased 55% ( £757m) to  £612m (2008:  £1,369m), impacted by low interest rates resulting in margin compression on the deposit book and increased impairment charges which together more than offset well controlled costs and an improved assets margin. Impairment charges rose to  £974m (2008:  £414m), reflecting the impact of the economic recession across the business with continued pressure on corporate liquidity, rising default rates and lower asset values. Barclays enforced strict criteria on new credit card applications, using a  scoring system that takes over 400 variables into account when assessing an applicant’s likely ability to manage their credit. Around 50% of applications for credit cards are declined as a result. Strong income growth (2009) across the portfolio driven by increased lending, improved margins and foreign exchange gains, was offset by higher impairment charges, driven by the deterioration in the global economy. Impairment charges in the international businesses increased  £444m, driven by higher delinquencies due to deteriorating economic conditions. UK portfolio charges were higher as a result of rising delinquencies due to the economic deterioration, especially in the loan portfolios, and the inclusion of Goldfish in UK Cards. The impairment charge in Global Retail and Commercial Banking increased by 85% ( £2,473m) to  £5,395m (2008:  £2,922m) as charges rose in all portfolios, reflecting deteriorating credit conditions across all regions. Impairment charges on loans and advances increased 50% ( £2,445m) to  £7,358m (2008:  £4,913m). The increase was primarily due to economic deterioration and portfolio maturation, currency movements and methodology enhancements, partially offset by a contraction in loan balances. In Investment Banking and Investment Management, impairment was broadly unchanged at  £1,949m (2008:  £1,980m). The impairment charge against available for sale assets and reversed repurchase agreements increased by 41% ( £207m) to  £713m (2008:  £506m), driven by impairment against credit market exposures. Political During 2008, the UK government acted in the banking sector to recapitalise banks and guarantee toxic assets and deposits and new lending for essential infrastructure programmes. This was essential to shore up lending for consumers and businesses and restore confidence in banks. Also it was vital to avoid the unprecedented banking crisis having even more wide reaching and catastrophic effects in the wider economy. This decision was not taken lightly and wasn’t considered an easy ride for the banks. Banks wishing to  participate in the Asset Protection Scheme for example had to make additional lending to households and businesses. But the overarching priority in the banking sector was first to ensure the continuing supply of credit to the wider economy. This means returning the banks to solvency and profitability, and maintaining financial stability. On 13th October 2008, the government nationalised the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), taking up a 63 % stake in exchange for  £20 billion of taxpayers’ money (now 84% owned by the government) on condition that no executive bonuses paid during 2008; no dividend until the government’s  £5bn of preference shares are repaid and the government appointed three directors; RBS had to maintain mortgage lending at 2007 levels. On 31st October 2008, Business secretary Lord Mandelson waived competition law for takeover of Lloyds TSB’s takeover of Halifax Bank of Scotland creating the fourth biggest bank of Britain to calm uncertainty about the strength of HBOS after a run on its shares. The combined bank accounts for a third of the mortgage market. Although the merged bank is smaller than Barclays, HSBC and Royal Bank of Scotland, because it has less of an international profile than the other banks, it is the market leader – in terms of savings – by a huge margin. In order to shore up confidence in the banking system during 2008, the government injected money into Lloyds TSB Bank ( £5.5bn) and HBOS ( £11bn) and became owner of 43.5% of the combined group, directors were asked to receive 2008’s bonus in shares; no dividend until preference shares are repaid; government appointed two directors; Lloyds asked to maintain mortgage lending at 2007 levels for next three years. As the Financial Services Authority increased the capital ratio requirements for all UK banks, Barclays had been forced to raise  £7.2 billion from Middle Eastern Investors on generous terms. A further  £1.5bn was being raised from institutional investors to strengthen its balance sheet. Chancellor Alistair Darling introduced a temporary one-off super-tax of 50% on bankers’ bonuses paid above  £25000 between December 2009 and April 2010. Bankers still had to pay income tax on any bonus they receive as usual. The  new tax was designed to discourage banks from awarding large bonuses to employees in the wake of the major taxpayer support they have received in the financial crisis. Consequently, Barclays paid  £225 million in windfall bonus tax for 2009. Sociocultual According to British Retail Consortium (BRC), more people are using cash to pay for their purchases amid growing consumer concerns about how much money they are spending. The global credit crunch is causing consumers to be more cautious with their money. Figures from the organisation showed that cash was used for 60 per cent of all transactions during 2008, an increase of 54 per cent from 2007. Cash represented 34 per cent of all money spent in the retail sector during 2008, compared with 32 per cent in 2007. According to BRC, people’s enthusiasm for using cards is slipping as they are not only reluctant to borrow but also reluctant to use cards. A survey released on 22nd January 2009 by communications consultants Cohn & Wolfe revealed the full scale of UK consumers’ anger with financial institutions. UK consumers perceive their banks to be ‘greedy’ and ‘impersonal’, according to the survey, which polled 852 consumers in January 2009. The study also revealed that 60% of consumers don’t believe that their bank is looking after their best interests. When asked which words best describe the perception of their financial institution, consumers identified ‘greedy’ (49%), ‘impersonal’ (36%) and distant (34%). Positive and desired descriptions including ‘ethical’ (2%), ‘trustworthy’ (4%) and ‘transparent’ (5%) were among the least common terms used by consumers to describe their financial institutions. Almost two thirds (64%) of respondents’ trust in financial institutions had weakened over the last 18 months. A lack of confidence in banks was further emphasized with 74% of consumers saying that they do not believe that their bank would help them recover any money they had lost in 2008. Respondents also identified the financial services they trusted most. Retail banks were comfortably (59%) the most trusted type of financial service. At the other end of the scale, investment broker (2%), insurance providers (5%), online financial service providers and supermarket  retailers (both 6%) come off worst. Due to such negative attitude towards banking industry and intense public interest and concern for banks and bankers’ pay, Barclays chief executive John Varley and president Bob Diamond both agreed to sacrifice bonuses for two years, 2008 and 2009. Technological In late 2004, Chip & PIN technology was introduced as a strategic response to tackle counterfeit and lost & stolen card fraud in the face-to-face environment. Up until this point, UK consumers signed for their goods and services and only used their PIN for ATM withdrawals. During 2007, Barclays sent out ‘PIN sentry’ machines to over half a million customers in an attempt to prevent online banking fraud. The PIN sentry reader is meant to be used once an online account holder has logged in to the banking site. After logging in, customers slot their bank debit card into the card reader, which generates a unique code which they must input before making a transaction. Also, retailers and banks are using more fraud screening detection tools and online fraud prevention tools, such as MasterCard SecureCode and Verified by Visa, which make cards more secure when people are shopping online. This led to phone, internet and mail order fraud losses falling 19 percent from  £328.4 million in 2008 to  £266.4 million in 2009. Environmental Climate change has become the single biggest challenge the world faces at the beginning of the 21st century, and in response Barclays is focusing increasingly on its work on the environment, which includes both its direct and indirect impacts. Barclays remains committed to increasing its energy efficiency, and reducing its carbon footprint on an ongoing basis, as well as helping its supply chain reduces its emissions. In 2007, it invested in emissions trading capability, and moved into the consumer market with new lower-carbon products and services. An example is Barclaycard Breathe, a new card that gives consumers incentives when they buy green products, and donates half its profits to environmental projects. In the wholesale market Barclays Capital has committed to the EU emissions trading market to brings its full range of commodity trading and risk management expertise to bear to help clients manage their carbon risk. Since 2005 it has traded over 600 million tonnes of carbon credits, with a notional value of over $14 billion. Legal factors The global financial crisis resulted in a significant tightening of regulation and changes to regulatory structures globally. The changes in the legal framework, policies and banking regulatory action, have an impact on Barclays’ businesses and earnings. The market for payment protection insurance (PPI) has been under scrutiny by the UK competition authorities and financial services regulators. In 2006, the FSA published the outcome of its broad industry thematic review of PPI sales practices in which it concluded that some firms fail to treat customers fairly and that the FSA would strengthen its actions against such firms. Barclays voluntarily complied with the FSA’s request to cease selling single premium PPI by the end of January 2009. On 21st February, the UK government introduced Banking Act 2009 which provides the Authorities with tools to deal with failing banks and building societies. The Banking Act provides a permanent and appropriate regime for the resolution of failing banks. It is a major step forward in the Government’s programme to strengthen stability and confidence in the UK banking system, in the wake of the global instability experienced by financial markets. In order to discourage excessive risk taking by large banks, FSA published its new Remuneration Code of Practice in August 2009. The code states that firms should not encourage risk taking to generate short-term profit – the focus should be on long term success. It required firms to give pay details to FSA so that it can monitor compliance. Barclays’ discretionary pay awards for 2009 were fully compliant with the FSA Remuneration Code which resulted in an increase in the deferred awards by approximately 70% and greater use of  equity in deferral structures, particularly to senior staff. 100% of the discretionary pay awards for 2009 to its Executive Committee were deferred. RECOMMENDATION From previous chapters it becomes clear that Barclays bank operates in unpredictable and volatile business environment. In such circumstances, it is highly recommended that it should be clear about its strategic framework for the coming years and should maintain a sound financial and organisational footing that anticipates and adapts to the regulatory changes. It can achieve superior growth by diversifying its profit base by geography and by business line. It should focus intensely on cost reduction and risk management. It is required to create the internal framework, processes and culture to respond rapidly to new opportunities, threats and regulations. It is also required to re-establish trust and relationship with customers by fulfilling their needs with product innovation and customer centric approach. CONCLUSION The global economic slowdown and subsequent recession in UK and in many other countries of the world have changed the business environment in substantial way. Barclays Bank operates in a business environment which is highly influenced by political, economical, sociocultural, technological, environmental and legal factors. In order to compete successfully, it has to adapt to changing business environment. Its performance in last five years shows that it has the ability to run the business profitably even in such deteriorating economic conditions where other players in the market struggled to survive. However, it needs to undertake a balanced set of strategic initiatives in such unpredictable and extreme volatile business environment which is beyond the organisational control. REFERENCES * Exploring Corporate Strategy, text and cases, sixth edition (2002) by Gerry Johnson and Kevan Scholes * http://en.wikepedia.org * http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pubs/other/turner_review.pdf * http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?inarticle_id=469739&in_page_id=2#ixzz0lIhv4NoL * http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8479639.stm * http://www.myoffshoreaccounts.com/english/offshore_uk-banking-uk-bank-account * http://group.barclays.com/About-us/Barclays-at-a-glance/Key-facts * http://group.barclays.com/Investor-Relations/Shareholder-information/Annual-Reports * http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932010) * www.moneyshop.co.uk/†¦/brc-credit-crunch-leading-to-cash-comeback.html * http://www.gciuk.com/en/news/banking-blues-uk-survey-says-consumers-lose-trust * http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/press_16_09.htm * http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/consumertips/banking/6267384/Online-banking * http://econsultancy.com/blog/1065-barclays-uses-chip-and-pin-to-combat-online-fraud